DTC1013: Predicting your 2026 email revenue

Here’s what you’ll learn in today’s newsletter:

The 6-part formula that predicts your 2026 email revenue.

Jordan Gordon from Pilothouse built a projection system on the brand side that was accurate to within $50,000 at year-end. It's deceptively simple — and it works because email is the one channel where you control the outbound volume.

‍🌟 These New Benchmarks Reveal Big Opportunities For 2026

Curious how your brand really stacks up against the competition?

Ready to sharpen your marketing strategy for the year ahead?

Discover where you can win inside Klaviyo’s 2026 Omnichannel Benchmark Report, built from the latest data across 183,000+ brands.

It’s packed with insights and metrics that put your brand’s performance in context, and gives you practical, actionable ideas to guide your next moves.

‍How to Build a Crystal Ball for Your Email Program: A 6-Part Revenue Projection System for 2026

A few years ago, Jordan Gordon from Pilothouse was running email on the brand side — large domain, millions in email revenue, and a self-set annual target.

So he built a projection model. By December, he landed within $50K of his forecast.

Most brands don’t operate this way. In paid media, forecasts often rely on gut feel — “we’ll grow 10%” — because buyers are at the mercy of CPMs, auctions, and impression volatility.

Email is different. You control the outbound. You decide how many emails get sent. Which means your forecast can be precise — not directionally right. Actually right.

Jordan’s system breaks your program into six components. Project each one, add them up, and you have your 2026 number.

First: Your Two Warm-Up Inputs

Before you model anything, you need two numbers.

1) Top-of-funnel growth factor: Get this from your ads team — their projected Shopify growth from paid channels.

Is it: 20%, 50%, 100%? You need the real number.

2) Compound mailable list growth rate: Pull your master mailable list from your email platform and measure YoY growth. If your list grew 20% last year, assume a similar baseline.

Important distinction: Your list is a balance sheet, not an income statement. Addresses accumulate slowly and churn slowly. That makes list growth more stable than traffic growth.

👉 Don’t blindly apply your ads team’s growth rate to list size.
👉 Use historical list growth, then nudge upward if paid is scaling aggressively.

These two inputs power the entire model. From there, the program breaks into six revenue buckets.

The Six-Component Projection Model

Not all six matter equally.

Primary revenue drivers:

• Campaigns
• Welcome
• Abandonment

Strategic support flows:

• Prospect reactivation
• Post purchas
• Buyer reactivation

Start here.

1. Campaigns (Your biggest lever)

Formula: Mailable list × campaigns sent × revenue per email sent

You’ll need to calculate revenue per email sent manually: Last 12 months campaign revenue ÷ total campaign emails sent

Jordan’s observation: this metric is surprisingly stable across brands.
Projection: Adjusted list × planned 2026 sends × revenue per email sent.

2. Welcome (Driven by new subscribers)

Welcome revenue is tied to new subs, not total list size.

Formula: New subscribers × welcome length × revenue per recipient

Pull from your email platform:

• Last 12-month subscriber count
• Revenue per recipient (shown in-flow)

Then apply your top-of-funnel growth factor.

3. Prospect Reactivation Continuation

These target non-buyers after welcome.

Jordan’s candid take: these are often weak performers and can hurt inbox health.

If you keep them:
Formula: Prospect list × list growth × emails in flow × revenue per recipient
Shortcut: Grow last year’s revenue by the average of your two growth factors.

4. Post Purchase

Triggered by first-time buyers.

To size the audience:

1. Pull total buyers (12 months)
2. Subtract repeat buyers
3. Apply your top-of-funnel growth factor

Formula: Projected first-time buyers × emails in flow × revenue per recipient
⚠️ Uses top-of-funnel growth, not list growth.

5. Buyer Reactivation Continuation

Same structure as prospect reactivation — but more meaningful.
👉 For most brands, roughly two-thirds of Klaviyo revenue comes from buyers.

Formula: Buyer mailable list × list growth × emails in flow × revenue per recipient

Most of the value shows up later in campaigns via improved engagement.

6. Abandonment (The exception)

Abandonment doesn’t follow the normal formula. Instead, use: Abandonment emails per session

How to calculate: Total abandonment emails sent ÷ total sessions (last 12 months)

Then project: Projected sessions × abandonment emails per session × revenue per recipient

If you run multiple flows (site, browse, cart, checkout), model each separately.

‍👀 The Customer Service Shift Showing Up in 2026

Klaviyo asked 500+ ecommerce, hospitality, and retail leaders how AI and self-service are reshaping customer service, and the findings are eye-opening.

For example, 44% of respondents say AI and automation tools haven’t significantly changed the size or structure of their customer service team.

The takeaway? In 2026, self-service isn’t about fewer agents; it’s about smarter conversations.

👉 Klaviyo’s 2026 State of Customer Service Report gives you the data your brand needs to have those conversations, with insights from business leaders across the US, UK, and Australia.

The report breaks down:

• Where traditional customer service tools are falling short
• How AI and live agents each play a role in modern service
• Why brands are treating service as a growth investment

Ready for a closer look?

‍The 6-Component Email Revenue Projection Spreadsheet

1️⃣ Get your two inputs

• Top-of-funnel growth (from ads team)
• 12-month mailable list growth (from your email platform)

2️⃣ Campaigns: Adjusted list × planned sends × revenue per email sent

3️⃣ Welcome: Last 12mo subscribers × TOF growth × flow length × revenue per recipient

4️⃣ Post Purchase: First-time buyers × TOF growth × flow length × revenue per recipient

5️⃣ Abandonment (by flow type): Projected sessions × abandonment emails per session × revenue per recipient

6️⃣ Prospect + Buyer Reactivation: List × list growth × flow length × revenue per recipient—or shortcut: grow last year’s revenue by the average of both growth factors

7️⃣ Add all six lines

That’s your 2026 email revenue projection.

Listen to the full episode on the World's Best Email & Retention Podcast →

‍What does your 2026 strategy look like? Today’s most customer-obsessed brands are building smarter, not harder. Explore the strategies shaping 2026 growth in the new Behind the Brands guide. Grab your copy → *

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DTC Newsletter is written by Rebecca Knight and Frances Du. Edited by Eric Dyck.

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