DTC1029: Seasonality Adjustments, and How Odd Pieces Disrupted Puzzle Category

Good morning,

Here’s what you’ll find in today’s DTC:

1️⃣ Using seasonality adjustments in Google Ads to avoid wasted spend  
2️⃣ How this mystery puzzle brand raised $500K on Kickstarter

You’re reading this newsletter along with new subscribers from: Republic of Tea, Anantara, and Wonderbly. 👋

‍💰 Do This Before A Promo To Avoid Confusing Google’s Smart Bidding Algo

Running a flash sale? You need to tell your customers, but also Google Ads.

Or else…things can go sideways fast.

Here’s why: When you slash prices or launch a limited-time promotion, conversion rates spike.

How Google's Smart Bidding algorithm interprets this sudden change:

Either it will assume something is wrong or even worse, try to "learn" from it.

It starts aggressively bidding just as your sale winds down.

By the end of the sale you’re left with a confused algorithm, wasted spend, and inflated CPAs. And it can take weeks to recover.

The simple fix? Seasonality Adjustments

This is an underused feature that keeps your campaigns on track before, during, and after a promotion.

What Is a Seasonality Adjustment?

A Seasonality Adjustment is a tool inside Google Ads that lets you manually tell the algorithm to expect a temporary change in conversion rate.

Instead of letting Smart Bidding figure it out on the fly, you're giving it a heads-up.

Think of it as leaving a note for a colleague before you go on vacation:
"Hey, things will look different this week. Here's why."

Without a seasonality adjustment, Smart Bidding could ride the CVR spike during the sale, assume the new conversion rate is permanent, and keep bidding aggressively long after the promo ends.

What ends up happening: CPCs stay elevated, CVR drops back to baseline, ROAS collapses.

Why This Matters More Than You Think

Smart Bidding is optimized for stability. When conversion rates suddenly jump during a sale:

• The algorithm overcorrects, pushing bids too high
• CPAs spike as Smart Bidding chases inflated signals
• After the sale ends, performance dips as the algorithm recalibrates
• Recovery can take 30 days on average. Long after your promotion is over

This pattern repeats for nearly every business that runs seasonal promos without applying adjustments.

The sale looks successful in isolation, but the surrounding weeks take a hit.

How to Set Up Seasonality Adjustments

In Google Ads, go to Tools → Budgets and Bidding → Adjustments, then select the Seasonal tab and click the plus button to create a new adjustment.

Here's what to fill in:

1. Select adjustment type: Choose Conversion rate if you expect a spike in quality/sales; choose Budget only if you need to force a higher spend regardless of performance.
2. Name it clearly: Use something like "Summer Flash Sale 2026" so you can track it later
3. Set your window: Enter the exact start and end times; if your sale ends at midnight, the adjustment must end at midnight
4. Choose your scope: Apply the adjustment to campaigns where you expect real shifts in buyer behavior (e.g. conversion-focused campaigns like Search, Shopping, and PMAX).
5. Select devices: You can choose to apply this to all devices or just mobile if your promo is app-specific.
6. Estimate your CVR increase:This is the most critical field. If your normal CVR is 2% and you expect it to hit 3% during the sale, that’s a 50% increase.
7. Save and monitor: Once active, the system will prioritize this signal over its usual historical learning until the timer runs out.

💡 Pilothouse Tip: If your brand hasn’t run a promo before, look at how much a price drop actually moves the needle for a specific item.

For example, on a high AOV item, a small discount is less likely to motivate buyers, whereas for cheaper items, a 10% drop might easily net 20% more sales.

Map out that sweet spot where the volume increase actually makes up for the lower price.

The takeaway?

Seasonality Adjustments are one of the highest-leverage, lowest-effort optimizations in Google Ads.

It takes under 5 minutes to set up and can save weeks of algorithmic confusion after every sale.

If you're running flash sales, holiday promotions, or any short-term offer without them, you're essentially paying twice — once during the sale, and again during the recovery.

Next time you plan a promotion, create the seasonality adjustment before you schedule the ad creative.

Your future self (and your CPA) will thank you.

‍How Odd Pieces Hit $500K on Kickstarter by Reinventing the Puzzle Category

Ginny Lo is the co-founder of Odd Pieces, a story-driven puzzle brand that took a tired category and made it feel innovative and fun.  

Instead of selling just another image-in-a-box, Odd Pieces built puzzles with hidden clues and suspenseful storytelling that make customers want the next one as soon as they finish the first.

In this episode, Ginny breaks down how Odd Pieces started in a 400-square-foot apartment, how they launched on Kickstarter with less than $10K, and what they’ve learned from scaling across DTC, Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and repeat Kickstarter launches.

In this episode we cover:

• How a COVID date night gave Ginny and her partner the idea for a new product category
• Why the first Odd Pieces puzzle prototype took 8+ months to get right
• What actually makes Kickstarter work, and what agencies can’t do for you
• How the first Kickstarter campaign hit $500K and nearly 10,000 backers
• Why product design, not just marketing, is doing the heavy lifting on retention

▶️ Watch on YouTube | 🎧 Listen on Spotify

‍Shopify prepares for AI transformation. President Harley Finkelstein shares that AI agents will be ‘the new front door for ecommerce sellers.’ Read more →

Amazon introduces faster delivery. Customers in select cities can now get over 90,000 items delivered in 3 hours or less. Read more →

Google Ads Editor gets an upgrade. The new update introduces updates across PMax, Demand Gen and video campaigns. Read more →

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DTC Newsletter is written by Rebecca Knight and Frances Du. Edited by Eric Dyck.

Please note that items in this newsletter marked with * contain sponsored content.