DTC 920: 2025 Holiday Predictions, Brand Differentiation, and Post-Purchase Survey Qs

Good morning,

Here’s what you’ll find in today’s DTC:

🔮 2025 Holiday Predictions
From discount strategy changes to AI impact.

🧓 Don’t Alienate Your Audience
Lessons from Refy’s timeless campaign.

🧠 Get Into Your Customer’s Head
Add this Q to your post-purchase survey.

You’re reading this newsletter along with new subscribers from: Sunice Sports, Beko, and Sweet Squared. 👋

💥 Branded Bills Cracked The Code With CTV—To The Tune Of 311% ROAS and $0.33 Cost Per Session. Here’s How

Branded Bills, a fast-growing custom headwear brand, needed real performance from their streaming TV campaigns—and they found it by switching to Vibe.co. 😎

By leveraging retargeting, Klaviyo IP matching, and seasonal creative optimization, they achieved:

• 🔥 311% ROAS
• 💸 $0.33 cost per session
• 🎯 $23 avg CPM

With transparent reporting, real-time insights, and premium placements on channels like ESPN+, CNN, and Roku, Branded Bills finally found the scalable, trackable CTV partner they needed. 📈

👉 Want to follow in their footsteps? Use promo code DTC2025 to start using Vibe with a $1,500 ad credit.

🔮 Salesforce Shares Five Holiday Insights

Salesforce just released its 2025 holiday ecommerce forecast, and the theme is clear: discovery.

From AI-driven product searches to the comeback of physical retail, brands must prepare for shifting consumer behaviors this season.

Here are the five key predictions, along with suggestions on how ecommerce brands can respond.

1. Online Holiday Sales Will Break Records

Global ecommerce sales are expected to hit $1.25T, with U.S. sales reaching $288B (+2.1% YoY) despite challenges surrounding tariffs.

👉 Don’t scale back, double down. Ensure your ad budgets, fulfillment, and creatives are ready for peak demand in November to December.

2. Discounts Will Run Deeper

Average discounts during Cyber Week will reach 29% in the U.S. and Canada, with apparel (37%) and beauty (35%) leading the charge.

👉 Build margin into your pricing strategy now. Test bundles, loyalty perks, or free shipping so you’re not relying solely on heavy discounts to compete.

3. Agentic AI Will Drive 20% of U.S. Holiday Sales

AI assistants like ChatGPT are already converting 200–700% higher than social traffic. Nearly 9% of consumers now start their shopping journey in LLMs.

👉 Optimize your product data, reviews, and SEO for conversational queries.

4. Tariffs Push More Shoppers to Resale

Half of U.S. consumers plan to gift secondhand. Salesforce projects $64B in resale sales globally.

👉 If resale fits your category, consider integrating it (certified refurbished, trade-in programs). If not, emphasize durability, value, and sustainability in your messaging.

5. Stores Will Be Central Again

76% of U.S. consumers will shop in-store, with Gen Z spending 3x more in stores than online.

👉 Lean into omnichannel. Use digital to drive foot traffic (local inventory ads, store pickup), and align in-store and online promotions.

This holiday season won’t just be about bigger discounts. It’s about discovery, AI-driven personalization, and blending physical and digital.

🌎 Global Commerce Is At A Turning Point This Q4. Here’s What You Need To Adapt

💥 The 2025 peak season will test every system, from supply chain to checkout.

Swap’s latest Resilient Commerce Report reveals how 100 U.S. commerce leaders are preparing for the year’s most volatile quarter: planning earlier, protecting margins, and adapting to shifting tariffs and consumer behavior.

👀 Discover:

• 🚢 What’s causing 87% of brands to reshape supply chains and pricing strategies
• ⏰ How 52% of brands time BFCM campaign planning to proactively protect margins
• 💸 One move that 60% of brands use to retain revenue and protect profitability

…and much more.

⚡ Learn the four key strategies that separate resilient brands from reactive ones, and how leading businesses are scaling despite global uncertainty. 📈

🎧 Differentiation vs. Alienation: The Fine Line Every Brand Walks

In today’s DTC landscape, being a ‘relatable’ brand isn’t enough.

As audiences mature and attention spans shrink, brands that once won on tone and accessibility now risk blending in.

Real differentiation comes not from louder messaging, but from intentional originality, a concept Aves calls “hopeful creativity.”

Take Refy’s “Iconic Never Gets Old” campaign, which feels timeless.

The Gen Z-founded cult beauty brand known for minimalist design and creator-led appeal made a bold move by featuring women in their 60s as campaign heroes.

Rather than claiming to be “ageless” or anti-aging, Refy reframed beauty as something aspirational at every stage of life.

Their message wasn’t, “We’re for older women now,” but rather, “We’re inspired by the women we’ll become.”

That subtle distinction is what separates differentiation from alienation.

Many brands mistake being different for being divisive, taking hard stances that risk excluding core customers.

Refy did the opposite: it expanded its relevance without abandoning its base.

At Pilothouse, this principle sits at the core of brand and creative strategy.

True differentiation starts with care (understanding the motivations, fears, and aspirations of your audience) and then crafting every word, edit, and image with intention.

In a crowded market, brands that blend in lose by default.

Refy’s campaign shows that standing out doesn’t mean shouting from the rooftops. It means caring enough to say something worth listening to.

For DTC brands looking to last, that’s the real differentiator.

👉 Listen to the full episode with Aves here.

Add this question to your post-purchase survey if you want to know what almost stopped customers from purchasing (e.g., price, customer experience, etc).

By understanding what causes friction, you can address those objections in your messaging, ads, or through customer service support.

📥 Got a B2B Biz?

Join dozens of B2B companies finding demand-gen success through our niche community of 150k brand leaders and founders this year. Talk to our team to learn more.

Have you heard our latest podcasts?

• 🏆 TWBERP 54: Win Black Friday (and Keep Your Rep Intact)
• 🧠 The Future of Unified Commerce with Shopify’s Head of Retail
• 🏌️ AKNF 548: Strategic Levers to Build Meta Momentum in Q4
• 📐 Ad-venturous 22: The Try-Angle Method for Smarter Brands
• 👚 TWBERP 53: Examining Urban Outfitters’ Email Machine
• 🚀 Highland’s $10M Playbook and CAC Payback

Don’t forget to rate the DTC Podcast on Apple (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)

DTC Newsletter is written by Rebecca Knight and Frances Du. Edited by Eric Dyck.

Please note that items in this newsletter marked with * contain sponsored content.